Climate change

Air quality

 

Good

Hazardous

Inside Climate News - Attribution science measures how much human-caused global warming loaded the dice for an extreme weather event, making it more likely or more intense. Recent research shows climate extremes, like the deadly 2021 heat dome over the Pacific Northwest and this summer’s early heat wave in Europe that killed more than 5,000 people, would have been impossible without human-caused warming.

To determine how global warming affects an extreme event, researchers compare its intensity and likelihood in the current climate with the same event modeled in a world without human-caused emissions. A combination of observational data, weather and climate models and statistical models help quantify the effect of human-caused warming on the extreme event.

 In the report, the authors wrote that attribution scientists should develop shared standards for studying extreme events so different research groups can more easily compare and verify one another’s results. It also recommended regularly reviewing the rapid attribution studies now issued within days of major disasters to ensure the methods keep pace with advances in climate science.

 The report says the next big advances will come from more powerful climate models that can better simulate localized extremes such as severe thunderstorms and hail, along with improved weather and impact data, especially in parts of the world where observations remain limited. It also urges scientists to work more closely with local officials and communities so attribution studies can better inform disaster planning, recovery and estimates of climate-related losses