Iran

Russ Baker, Who What Why - Shortly before Trump let slip the hounds of war, the foreign minister of Oman, mediator in US-Iran talks, went on Face the Nation and stated that a deal was imminent, and that Iran had made a major new concession on use of nuclear fuel. 

And claims that Iran was close to producing weapons-grade bomb materials have been disputed by nearly every reliable source and entity. That no single casus belli was truly in play was made apparent as the president shifted regularly between stating it was about weapons and about regime change. Trump clearly did not want a deal with Iran. 

He wanted the public adrenaline hit that comes from being “badass.” And there are no limits to what he’s capable of doing in order to, like the Iranian mullahs, stay on top. 

Indeed, we’re seeing growing signs that Trump, in classic tyrant mode, will try whatever it takes to prevail at home — in the upcoming midterm elections. That seems to have included the mantra George W. Bush privately introduced to his advisers, before 9/11: As Bush’s ghostwriter recounted to me, Bush believed that, to be a successful president, you need a good war. 

The reason? The public loved a good, albeit manageable, conflict, and it would cause his poll numbers to surge, giving him a “successful” presidency.   

Ironically, in 2012 and 2013, Trump tweeted that then-President Barack Obama would start a war with Iran to help get himself reelected.

The Hill -  Lawmakers in both parties are bracing for a showdown in Congress this week over President Trump’s authorities as commander-in-chief after weekend U.S. strikes on Iran that killed that country’s supreme leader and threaten to embroil the nation in war.

The Senate this week will debate and vote on a bipartisan war powers resolution sponsored by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) that would bring a halt to U.S. military action against Iran though it has no chance of becoming law as Trump would be certain to veto it.

The debate in Congress this week will give Democrats a platform to argue that Trump’s order to strike Iran over the weekend was illegal and to demand the administration explain how it plans to end the conflict, which has resulted in Iran conducting retaliatory strikes against Israel and eight other Arab countries.   

Kaine told reporters Sunday that he expects the resolution to come up for a vote on Tuesday and said he suspects GOP colleagues are concerned about a drawn-out conflict, something that could destabilize the broader region and drive up energy prices.

NPR - On Up First, NPR's Jackie Northam says she spoke to people in Iran about the death of their supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reviews were mixed. Some said they're very happy about his death. On social media, some have been seen pulling down his statues. But large crowds also attended pro-regime rallies mourning his death.

The White House told NPR that Iran wants to restart nuclear talks and that Trump will eventually speak with whoever is in charge. But a top Iranian security official on X said Iran will not negotiate. Trump said the U.S. will continue full-force combat operations in Iran until his objectives are met, though he hasn't specified what those specific objectives are. Without knowing what the U.S. wants to achieve, it is hard to predict how long the war will last, NPR’s Franco Ordoñez says.

If Iran continues to retaliate against the U.S. by targeting its Arab neighbors, these Gulf Arab states could decide to strike back, widening the war further, NPR’s Aya Batrawy says. The U.K., France and Germany say they will take steps to defend their allies' interests in the region. Saudi Arabia says Iranian drones targeted one of its largest oil refineries today. Oil prices rose sharply when market trading began yesterday.

NY Times - As American and Israeli warplanes continue to bombard Iranian cities, European allies have been left in a familiar place: on the sidelines. President Trump cut them out of planning for a conflict that has direct implications for their security.

The awkward patchwork of responses from European leaders — a mix of guarded approval and plaintive calls for a return to diplomacy — attest to the complexities of dealing with a United States increasingly untethered to post-World War II rules and norms.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany suggested on Sunday that Mr. Trump was doing a job that Europe could not do itself. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, flatly rejected the strikes as destabilizing. President Emmanuel Macron of France tried to keep the focus on Europe’s campaign to defend Ukraine.

NY Times - There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?

Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.

Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.

Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

“Some kind of change will happen in the system,” he said. “But in which direction? We don’t know.”