Middle East

Headline USA  - Israel’s latest strikes on Lebanon and Iran have made clear that U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who started the war in lockstep, want different things.Trump had publicly warned Israel not to strike Beirut in its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. When it did, on Sunday, Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire. Israel then struck Iran, with which Trump has been engaged in weeks of high-stakes negotiations.

The fighting has since died down, but the differences between the two leaders are likely to persist. That’s because Trump, whose party faces elections later this year, wants to wind down an unpopular war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ease gas prices. Iran says a full ceasefire in Lebanon is key to any deal.

Roll Call -    The U.S.-Iran war appears to have no end in sight, as it hit its 100-day mark over the weekend despite President Trump’s campaign promises to keep the U.S. out of long-term foreign conflicts.  Trump denied ever promising not to start any new wars and disputed that Washington’s conflict with Tehran constituted an “endless war” during an interview with NBC News’s “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker that aired on Sunday.

However, the president continues to be dogged by questions about the war’s peace prospects as renewed strikes between Israel and Iran threaten the fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran. “The ceasefire was always more theoretical than real,” said Michael Rubin, a Pentagon official during the second Bush administration.

... One former Trump administration official argued the strikes between Israel and Iran do not jeopardize the ceasefire because it is in Iran’s interests for the negotiations to drag out. “Iran is playing a bit of a game here in trying to position that they might jeopardize the talks,” the former official said. “They think they benefit from the talks dragging out over time.”

Others warn that the Iranian regime’s position poses a long-term risk to the country’s own economy if the talks drag.  According to Al-Jazeera, the Central Bank of Iran reported last week that the country’s annual inflation rate spiked to 77.2 percent during the period between April 21 and May 20 compared to last year. The report also found that point-to-point inflation for goods spiked to 113 percent. 

And while Iran’s stock market reopened late last month after being shut down for 80 days due to the war, 40 major companies remained suspended with their latest financial reports outstanding.

“We, actually, as the United States, have a fair amount of leverage at this point, and I have no problem with letting that build,” said Victoria Coates, a member of Trump’s National Security Council during his first administration. 

“They can probably limp along for a couple of months,” she continued. “But those kinds of systemic problems that they have, they compound. If you continue limping along, it becomes harder and harder to come back.”  

Iran’s oil industry was dealt a major blow Monday, when Israel struck the massive petrochemical complex in Mahshahr. 

“They were counting on, particularly that industry springing back to life pretty quickly when the strait was reopened so they could start getting that out. It’s one of their most lucrative exports, and that’s now gone,” she said, referring to the Strait of Hormuz.

But as Republicans seek to defend their majorities in the House and Senate, Trump is facing political pressure back home to wrap up the war. Democrats have seized on rising energy prices and voters’ disillusionment over the conflict. 

“Another expensive conflict with no end in sight is not what the American people want or need right now,” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), noting the war powers resolutions in the House and the Senate that would theoretically force Trump to end the conflict. 

While a war powers resolution’s passage in the House last week was largely symbolic, four GOP lawmakers notably voted with Democrats on the measure. 

Many Republicans push back against calling the Iran conflict an “endless war,” noting the ceasefire that has been in place since April. 

“It’s hard for me to see this as a quagmire,” Coates said. “That said, the Iranians have a vote in all of this.” 

Iran announced on Monday that it was suspending ballistic missile attacks on Israel but warned of “a harsher and more crushing response” if Israel restarted attacks in southern Lebanon. 

Observers note that Iran has been working to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Israel with Lebanon.

Last week, Trump expressed his frustrations to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s incursion into Lebanon during a heated phone call. The incursion was part of Israel’s effort to target the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah; however, Iran announced it was suspending talks with the U.S. after Israel’s attacks. 

Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a breaking point on Sunday, after Iran launched missiles into Israel, marking the first time Tehran fired into Israel during its ceasefire with the U.S. Israel responded, hitting military targets in western and central Iran. 

Trump’s reply to the back-and-forth signaled a shift in his rhetoric toward Israel, which was closely partnered with Washington at the beginning of the war. 

“I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots,” Trump, referring to Netanyahu, told the Financial Times in an interview on Sunday.

Trump also told the publication that Israel “won’t have any choice” but to accept any potential deal to end the war with Iran.

Rubin said Trump’s comments toward Netanyahu were a part of the U.S. president’s effort to “bully” his Israeli counterpart. 

“He plays into Iranian conspiracies by depicting Israel as an American proxy,” Rubin said. “Instead, Trump should tell Iran: ‘You want Israel to stop whacking Hezbollah? Then talk to the Israelis directly.'”

In a statement aired on Israeli television on Monday, Netanyahu warned that if Iran “makes a mistake and resumes attacks against us,” Israel “will respond forcefully.” 

A White House official confirmed that Trump and Netanyahu spoke Monday, while Netanyahu described Trump as his “friend” and their conversations as “positive” in his statement. 

Rubin argued it would behoove Trump to take advantage of the Israeli and Lebanese governments sharing a common enemy in Hezbollah. 

“Hezbollah is more of a threat to Lebanese sovereignty than Israel,” he said. 

Coates acknowledged that there is tension, particularly over Lebanon, between the U.S. and Israeli leaders, but argued Iran has not been successful in driving a wedge between them. 

“They’re two very powerful personalities in very high pressure jobs,” she said. “It doesn’t mean the alliance is fracturing, or it would have fractured 10 years ago.”