2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: HARRIS VS. TRUMP PLUS OTHER CANDIDATES
Five poll average: Harris leads by 3%. This is 2% below her best so far. In June Biden's best was 2% behind Trump.
2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: HARRIS VS. TRUMP
Five poll average: Harris leads by 4%.
PRESIDENTIAL STATE MARGINS
Total electoral votes: 538 --270 needed to win. Harris currently has 244. She needs 26 more. Biden won in 2020 with 306. There are now 105 electoral votes too close to call
GEORGIA
Three poll average: Harris/Trump/Others Trump leads by 2%
Electoral vote: Virtual tie
NEVADA
Harris leads by 3% 1% better than Biden in 2020
Electoral vote: 6 for Harris
NORTH CAROLINA
2020 1%
2024 Harris/Trump 3 poll average Harris leads by 1% - 2% better than in 2020
Electoral vote: Tie
PENNSYLVANIA
2024 3 Poll average: Harris leads by 2% -
Electoral count: Virtual tie
TEXAS
3 poll average - Harris is losing by 6% - same as Biden in 2020
WISCONSIN
Harris leads by 3%
Electoral count: 10
A PROBLEM WITH POLLS
Rick Perlstein: In 2016, I experienced the desolation of my candidate for president losing after the most respected polling experts told me she had a 71.4 percent, 85 percent, 98.2 percent, and even 99 percent chance of winning. As a historian, I was studying how Ronald Reagan’s runaway landslide in 1980 was proceeded by every pollster but one supremely confident that the race was just about tied. I’ve just finished a fine book published in 2020 that confirms an intuition I’ve been chewing on since then. It turns out this is practically the historical norm. W. Joseph Campbell’s Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections demonstrates—for the first time, strangely enough, given the robust persuasiveness of its conclusions—that presidential polls are almost always wrong, consistently, in deeply patterned ways.”
Sam Smith - Which is why we use multiple poll averages rather than single polls to calculate candidate status.
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