December 12, 2020

Population growth and climate change

Sam Smith – Among the issues we don’t pay enough attention to is the relationship of population growth to climate change. The causes for this may include a desire not to offend certain religions or underdeveloped countries with high rates of birth, but the fact is that the topic deserves serious inclusion in discussions

Consider that the population of the world has doubled in the past 50 years. Between 1990 and 2010 the population of the US has increased 22%.

Minnesota Public Radio - Contraceptive use in developing countries is estimated to have decreased the number of maternal deaths by 40% (about 270,000 deaths prevented in 2008) and could prevent 70% of deaths if the full demand for birth control were met. These benefits are achieved by reducing the number of unplanned pregnancies that subsequently result in unsafe abortions and by preventing pregnancies in those at high risk.

As of 2012, 57% of women of childbearing age want to avoid pregnancy. About 222 million women however were not able to access birth control, 53 million of whom were in sub-Saharan Africa and 97 million of whom were in Asia.This results in 54 million unplanned pregnancies and nearly 80,000 maternal deaths a year. Part of the reason that many women are without birth control is that many countries limit access due to religious or political reasons, while another contributor is poverty. Due to restrictive abortion laws in Sub-Saharan Africa, many women turn to unlicensed abortion providers for unintended pregnancy, resulting in about 2–4% obtaining unsafe abortions each year.

Center for Biological Diversity - A 2009 study of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the “carbon legacy” of just one child can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person will save by driving a high-mileage car, recycling, using energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs, etc. Each child born in the United States will add about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average parent. The study concludes, “Clearly, the potential savings from reduced reproduction are huge compared to the savings that can be achieved by changes in lifestyle.”

Paul Murtaugh warned that: “In discussions about climate change, we tend to focus on the carbon emissions of an individual over his or her lifetime. Those are important issues and it's essential that they should be considered. But an added challenge facing us is continuing population growth and increasing global consumption of resources. . . . Future growth amplifies the consequences of people's reproductive choices today, the same way that compound interest amplifies a bank balance."

Scientific American - According to the United Nations Population Fund, human population grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion people during the course of the 20th century. (Think about it: It took all of time for population to reach 1.6 billion; then it shot to 6.1 billion over just 100 years.) During that time emissions of CO2, the leading greenhouse gas, grew 12-fold. And with worldwide population expected to surpass nine billion over the next 50 years, environmentalists and others are worried about the ability of the planet to withstand the added load of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere and wreaking havoc on ecosystems down below.

1 comment:

Proncias MacAnEan said...

I listened to a very interesting book, after seeing the authors on a YouTube lecture, and their analysis is that populations outside of Africa are on the way down, now or very soon. Overall we are very close to peak population.
("Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline" by Darrell Bricker, John Ibbitson)

Over the next few decades, China will loose about 600K; India will decrease also. Even some groups in Nigeria with well educated women are not having replacement numbers of children. Apparently once women become educated, they become more independent and won't have more than one or two kids. Without 2.1 kids per woman, populations drop.

The UN has hugely revised down its population prediction recently. These authors think they haven't revised it down far enough.

Having said all that, at 8BB we are still a huge strain on the planet.