October 14, 2016

Morning Line

Based on the average of recent polls:

Nationally, Hillary Clinton is four points ahead of Trump, a statistical tie. This this is 6 points better than her worst position vs Trump. Her current average percentage is 44%, Her campaign range has been 38-46%

Clinton is leading with 254 of the needed 270 electoral votes, down 21 from her best of 275 early in the campaign. Another 62 electoral votes are possibly Democratic. 152 electoral votes are definitely in the Trump column. Another 23 are possible. This would still leave him 95 votes short.

In the Senate the Democrats are gaining one seat and have a narrow lead in three more. The GOP has a narrow lead in one current Democratic seat. Three GOP seats and two Democratic seat are in doubt. The Dems need to win four more seats (plus a Democratic Veep) to control the Senate.

Democrats have already gained one governorship and could gain two more. One current Democratic governorship is in doubt

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