Israel to attack Iran?

Richard Silverstein, Tikun Olam - With specter of willing president looming, will new Defense Secretary Panetta abandon pragmatism of predecessor and support Iran attack?

A retired journalist who covered the intelligence beat, and with extensive senior intelligence sources, reports to me that Israel is planning to attack Iran before the September UN meeting at which Palestinian statehood will be discussed and possibly approved. He wrote to me some weeks ago:

…Some U.S. intelligence officials think that such a surprise [attack] on Iran could possibly take place in…September when [Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman] McMullen retires. It would [be] political war with its object to divert attention from Palestine.

…Senior US intelligence officials are saying that just recently a big US military force has been conducting large contingency planning drills in preparation for an intervention if Israel attacks Iran. Planning for a U.S. intervention is very far advanced.

…But perhaps the chief thing that counts here is that senior members of the US intelligence are resisting such notions with all the force that they can.

More recently, he sent this:

…The news is dismaying. Israel is planning a surgical strike against Iran. I’ve been talking to former senior agency officials and officials in military intelligence. Not only is [it] “very far along” in planning for a regional war, the Obama administration has signed off on it.

It will happen soon, before September…This is no drill.

If this is right, the timing of the attack couldn’t be more propitious for Israel, as it will certainly either derail entirely, or at the least delay the matter. It would also further reinforce the conviction of many that the Netanyahu government is using the issue of Iran as a pressure valve to deflect world attention from something that is a much higher priority for the current Israeli government: maintaining the Occupation.

To be fair, I find the statement that the U.S. is “planning for a regional war,” and that Obama has “signed off on it” to be overly alarmist. If the U.S. has signed off on an Israeli attack and possible U.S. support for it, I doubt we’re wishing or willing to instigate a regional war. Though on the other hand, just about every serious analyst warns that this is what will occur if Israel does attack.

Until yesterday, I also thought my source’s claim that Obama had signed off on it was exaggerated. That was when I spoke with a former military intelligence analyst who is one of my heroes of the Vietnam era. He told me in no uncertain terms he was certain Obama would approve such an attack were it presented to him. That brought me up short, since I have so much respect him. So I think I now have to change my view about Obama, and concede that given the resounding ‘success’ of, and approval generated by the Bin Laden assassination, it is likely Obama would support an Iran attack. I never believed this was possible till now.

A September attack could complicate the November elections, but if it was deemed successful it would further inoculate the Democrats and ensure success at the polls.